Tuesday, October 20, 2009

10-20-09 Yahoo [YHOO] earnings tonight 4 of 5 narrowing


YHOO has narrowed or reversed its share move between the sessions in all but one quarter over the past year. The longer-term trend favors reversals as well, with 12 narrowing moves between the sessions and nine wider next-day moves after evening earnings releases.

Looking deeper into YHOO's performance data, the stock has seen an after-hours decline in nine of the 21 earnings-driven after-hours moves we've tracked, and five times, 56% of the time, followed that trade with a more aggressive decline in the next day's regular session. On the plus side, longs should be wary of evening upside moves as YHOO has recorded an earnings-driven evening gain in 12 of the 21 quarters we've tracked. It has reversed or narrowed that gain in next-day regular session seven times, about 60% of the time.

On July 21, 2009, the stock fell 2.8% during after-hours trading after a Q2 beat. Shares rebounded to gain 3.7% the next day.

On April 21, 2009, YHOO advanced 5.7% in after-hours trade after reporting results in line to above Street estimates. It lost the bulk of that gain the next day, ending up a mere 0.7%.

On Jan. 27, the stock gained 4.5% after reporting a Q4 beat. Shares expanded that gain to 7.9% the next day.

On Oct. 21, 2008, shares rose 7.7% after an earnings meet. The gain was trimmed to 2.6% by the close of trading the next day.

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