NVDA is mixed between its after-hours move and the next day session following an evening earnings event. It has narrowed or reversed its next-day price movement 10 times and has widened its next-day movement 11. In a separate 22nd event it saw a flat evening trade followed by a next-day gain. In the near-term, performance favors widening, with more aggressive, same-direction trades in the following day's regular session over the last four consecutive quarters.
Looking deeper into the performance data, NVDA has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in seven of the 22 quarters we've tracked. In five of those quarters, 71% of the time, the stock has moved deeper in the red in the following day's regular session. On the long side, NVDA has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 14 quarters. It has reversed direction in the following day's regular session eight times, or 57% of the time.
On May 7, 2009, NVDA slumped 3.7% in after-hours trade despite posting better-than-expected Q1 results. The stock added to its downside in the May 8 regular session, closing with a 13.8% decline.
On Feb. 10, 2009, NVDA declined 2.9% in after-hours trade after missing revenue expectations. The stock tumbled lower the following day, losing 12.5% in the Feb. 11 regular session.
On Nov. 6, 2008, NVDA surged 12.6% in after-hours trade after topping Q3 expectations. It added to its gains the next day, rising 14.4% by the Nov. 7 closing bell.
On Aug. 12, 2008, NVDA advanced 10.2% in after-hours trade after beating earnings expectations and hiking its buyback plan. The stock added modestly to its upside the following day, rising 10.7% in the Aug. 13 regular session.
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