Monday, August 10, 2009

PCLN earnings 08-10-2009 wider moves 3 of last 4 earnings events

PCLN shows a tendency to widen its next day share movement following an evening earnings release, doing so for 16 of the past 22 quarters. In the near-term, the stock is also showing that pattern, widening its share move three times in the most recent four quarters.

Looking deeper into the performance data, longs may be interested to know that PCLN has seen a positive extended-hours earnings-driven trade in 13 of the 22 quarters we've tracked, and in 10 of those upside evening moves the stock has followed that trade with a more aggressive positive run in the next day's regular session.

Shorts too may see some more aggressive next-day trade, but the ratio of wider to narrowing events is a bit tighter. The stock has recorded downside extended-hours trade following nine of the quarters we've tracked. It widened that extended-hours downside move in the following regular session in five of those events.

On May 11, 2009, PCLN declined 1.3% in pre-market trade despite reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock reversed course in that day's regular session, ending up 3.8%.

On Feb. 18, 2009, PCLN soared 12.7% in after-hours trade after blowing past Q4 expectations and setting its Q1 view above the Street view. The stock moved even higher the next day, closing the Feb. 19 regular session up 16.6%.

On Nov. 6, 2008, the stock advanced 9% in the extended-hours session after a Q3 beat. Shares jumped 16% the next day.

On Aug. 5, 2008, PCLN tumbled 15.1% in after-hours trade despite reporting better-than-expected quarterly results and guidance that straddled the Street view. It added to its downside the next day, losing 17% by the close on Aug. 6.

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